There's a one-line formula behind every cap count we recommend:
Caps = expected attendance × redemption rate, then sanity-checked against lane throughput × open hours. Order the smaller of the two, plus a 5% buffer if the hat doubles as a gift.
Step one: pick your redemption rate
- 0.85–1.0 — the hat bar IS the event (welcome parties, hat-themed birthdays, registration gifts).
- 0.60–0.75 — standard private events: company parties, galas, tailgate hospitality. Our default is 0.65.
- 0.40–0.55 — competing-attention formats: conference receptions with parallel sessions, expo floors with fifty other booths.
Step two: check the physics
One press lane completes 40–60 caps per hour. Multiply by your true open hours — not event hours; the bar isn't pressing during speeches — and you get the ceiling. If the ceiling is lower than step one's answer, either add a lane or accept the smaller number and save the difference.
The lookup table
| Expected guests | Typical format | Recommended caps |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Welcome party, 3 hrs | 75–100 |
| 200 | Holiday party, 4 hrs | 130–150 |
| 300 | Gala or summit night, 4 hrs | 200 |
| 400 | Conference reception, 4–5 hrs | 240–280 |
| 500 | Fan event or family day, 6 hrs | 325–400 |
Two mistakes the formula prevents
Ordering to headcount. A 300-guest event with 300 caps strands 90+ hats in boxes — money that should have bought custom patches or a second open hour. Ordering to hope. Underbuying below 55% of attendance at a marquee event means the rack dies while the line is still forming, and the last twenty guests remember it. The formula's midpoint avoids both endings.
Deeper reasoning lives in the how-many-hats answer; tier mapping is in the package comparison. Or skip the homework — send your numbers and the quote does the math.